Baseball Recaps

Archive for the ‘Prospectus’ Category

2010 was in many ways a magical year in Cincinnati. They received better than expected production from nearly everyone in their lineup, and their pitching staff arrived in bloom earlier than expected. They did benefit from a late season swoon by the Cardinals that allowed them to take first place in the National League central and return the playoffs, but there is no reason not to expect great things from this Reds team for many years to come.

A contributor to the Reds’ success last year was the giant break out campaign by first baseman Joey Votto. Not only did he see big surges in his numbers, but he supplanted the reigning MVP Albert Pujols from his throne. Votto saw increases in nearly every offensive category including 37 homeruns, an increase of 12 over 2009, a .424 on base percentage and 91 walks. Truly MVP caliber numbers. He even stole more bases and ended the year with 13.

For years many scouts and baseball minds thought that Jay Bruce would be the player to take over the mantle of best Reds hitter when he came to the big leagues and forced Ken Griffey Junior’s to move to right. To this point Bruce has been successful, but hasn’t come close to the numbers Griffey put up. Bruce played

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Baseball is driven by statistics more so than any other sport. Baseball Prospectus was founded in 1996 and is devoted to advanced statistics and analysis of the game. It is a website as well as a radio show and an annual book. Baseball Prospectus uses sabermetrics, meaning they use objectivity instead of subjectivity.

The Baseball Prospectus website offers columns, data, blogs, and other information devoted to baseball statistics of the past as well as forecasts for the future. The annual book recaps all of the statistics from the previous season and uses sabermetric analysis to forecast stats for the upcoming season as well. These forecasts attempt to analyze the impact a potential roster move or injury could have on a team. They also use hard data to determine the value any player has to his team.

One of the major stats used by Baseball Prospectus is called Value Over Replacement Player (VORP). This stat determines the number of runs a player contributes over a potential minimum cost replacement player. This stat is used to determine the number of potential wins a single player accounts for on a single team. This can help teams or fans understand why it might not be worth the money to sign a player to long term contract.

Other statistics from Baseball Prospectus are used to determine the value of a player compared to his peers past or present. The Equivalent Average (EQA) stat combines batting average, slugging percentage, and other hitting numbers to determine where a player ranks overall with regards to offense. The Peripheral ERA (PERA) statistic tracks a pitcher’s projected ERA when accounting for various stadiums. Pitcher abuse points (PAP) determine the impact pitch counts and number of appearances have on the durability of a pitcher.

As you can see, Baseball Prospectus isn’t interested in listing common statistics like batting average and home runs, as they are available everywhere. Baseball Prospectus aims to go deeper in to the importance of a player. Using those baseline statistics, Baseball Prospectus uses data to show that a player who has a higher batting average than another doesn’t necessarily mean he’s more valuable offensively. The information used by Baseball Prospectus isn’t always correct, but it does provide general guidelines for teams to use to determine value. For fantasy baseball, the numbers offered by Baseball Prospectus can help drafters rank players. Baseball Prospectus is constantly updated and run by a network of people endorsed by The Baseball Writers of America.